Photo by Edmond Dantès
Midterm general elections are all about Congress, which is composed of two chambers, the House of Representatives and the Senate. It is an election where the entire U.S. House and one-third of the U.S. Senate are up for election, but the president is not. The elections determine much of the leadership of the state and local government and always occur two years after a presidential election.
Every four years, Americans troop out to vote in large numbers during presidential elections, and this is big news worldwide. But it’s a different story for midterm elections which do not elicit as much voting enthusiasm. Historically, voter turnout is lower than in general elections. However, the midterm elections are as important, as they can significantly impact the United States just as much as the presidential election. Decisions made by local leaders have a tremendous impact on day-to-day lives.
The elections are a face-off between the two major parties – Democratic and Republican and can be just as heated as a presidential race, because of what is at stake. This is because it determines power in Congress. For example, when it comes to bills, the political party with the majority in both the House and the Senate is more likely to have their legislation passed.
Trends in Black Voter Engagement From Barack Obama’s Time to Present
Race has always played an important role in the American political landscape. Over the years, Black voter engagement in the United States has seen significant shifts. Between 1996, when President Bill Clinton was reelected and 2008, when Barack Obama took over power, the turnout among African American voters jumped a staggering 21 percentage points — from 48.1 percent to 69.1 percent.
As the first African American nominee from a major party, in the 2008 election, Obama saw an increasing voter turnout rate for Black Americans, forcing a rewrite of the record books. Black turnout exceeded White turnout — 69.1 percent to 65.2 percent — for the first time in history. This continued in 2012 when Obama sought reelection, as the gap was even larger.
However, without the presence of a historic candidate like Obama in 2016, there was a drop in Black voter turnout to 59.6%. The 2018 midterm elections saw a resurgence in Black voter engagement. 90% of Black voters reportedly supported Democratic House candidates. In 2020, Black voter turnout reached an impressive 62%, contributing to Joe Biden’s victory. The turnout dropped during the 2022 midterm elections, though, Black voters and those living in urban areas continued to support Democratic candidates.
President Barack Obama giving a speech in 2010. Neon Tommy, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
How did Blacks vote in the US mid-term elections of 2022 and what may have influenced the outcome?
Black voter turnout has played a crucial role in shaping election outcomes, from local races to the presidency. In November 2022 – two years into President Joe Biden’s term of office – voters in the United States cast their ballots in the mid-term elections. The 2022 midterms were critical in determining the balance of power in the US Congress and the direction of key policies. Black voters have consistently identified with the Democrat Party, but in 2022, there were predictions of a sweeping victory for the Republicans, as Biden’s approval rating was low.
During the midterms, Black voter turnout dropped by nearly 10 percentage points, from 51.7 percent in 2018 to 42 percent in 2022, according to a Washington Post analysis of the Census Bureau’s turnout survey.
Biden largely retained the Black vote, but there was a notable shift towards the Republican Party among Black voters, increasing from 8 percent at the midterms four years before 14 percent in 2022.
Republicans narrowly flipped the House, winning 221 seats to Democrats’ 213, while Democrats retained a slim majority in the Senate.
The outcome may have been influenced by several factors. Some opined that Black voters were frustrated by what they perceived as insufficient reciprocation from the Democratic Party. They feel they are not being rewarded as much for their long-term, steadfast support.
Also, Democrats were said to have done a mediocre job of inspiring Black voters to turn out in the 2022 midterm elections.
Challenges and Barriers Black Voters Face
Voting rights became a major concern for Black voters during the 2022 midterms. People always criticize Blacks for not voting, but have we ever considered how laws and other systemic barriers may be preventing them from taking part in the democratic process?
One such obstacle is voter suppression tactics. Many states have implemented strict voter ID requirements which affect Black voters who may have less access to the required forms of identification. District boundaries are manipulated to dilute the voting power of Black communities, undermining their electoral influence. These and more decrease the voting engagement of minority populations.
Another is racial inequalities in elections. Due to the racial disparities in the criminal justice system, Black Americans are more likely than Whites to be disenfranchised due to having a felony record.
Also, the presence of law enforcement at polling places can be intimidating for Black voters, particularly in communities with strained police-community relations.
Widespread changes to voting practices, voting laws, and polling place changes all disproportionately affect voters of color, reducing their voting engagement.
Black voters are far more likely than White voters to have their ballots rejected for mismatched signatures or for being incorrectly completed. So, before we chastise Black people for not voting, we need to address voter disenfranchisement and other systemic barriers that affect voter turnout.
Black Voters and the 2024 Presidential Election
The presidential elections are fast approaching, and the political landscape is already heating up. As we look ahead to the 2024 elections, understanding and analyzing the significance of Black voter engagement is more important than ever.
It is no news that Democrats are favored by Black voters. In 2020, the Pew Research Center reported that Joe Biden received over 90% of the votes from Black voters.
However, a Washington Post-Ipsos poll conducted in April showed that Black Americans’ desire to vote in this year’s election is down sharply compared with four years ago. Nearly 1 in 5 Black voters who turned out for the president during the last elections say they are less than certain about whether they will vote at all this year.
Recent polls have shown Trump has gained support from Black voters. This surprisingly robust support from Black voters may pose challenges for President Biden, but things may change in the few months left before the election in November.
This is dependent as usual on some swing states and districts where Black voters could be decisive. At the end of the day, the outcome of the elections will come down to a handful of key states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
In 2020, Biden won six of the seven — the exception being North Carolina. However, current polls in 2024 show Trump leading in six of the seven most competitive states. He holds leads of between 2 and 8 percentage points in six states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.
A recent New York Times and Sienna College poll suggested that 23% of Black voters would back Trump over Joe Biden in key swing states in November.
Given that Biden’s numbers have slipped, the Democrats are making concerted efforts to appeal to Black voters. Trump is also not folding his arms and watching, as he too has been on his toes, from posing with Black Americans at a fast-food chain to inviting rappers on stage during a rally.
For decades, the Black community has voted overwhelmingly for Democrats. Will they be repeating the same in 2024? As the election fast approaches, Democrats cannot ignore the drop in Black voter turnout that happened between the last two midterms. They may have to campaign more than ever to retain the Black vote.
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